Singapore CPF Investor

Gold ETF using CPF

2007-11-05T22:45:00.000-08:00

Finally you can buy gold online using CPF, e.g. streetTRACKS Gold ETF. Before 6/11/07, you have to go to one of UOB branches to buy gold using CPF. Below is a technical chart of the gold ETF(GLD)

Portfolio for sgfunds.com fund portfolio contest - second half of 2007

2007-08-18T20:07:00.000-07:00

Will prices of major asset classes higher from 27/8/07 at the end of 2007 after recent correction? I think this is the likely scenario even though I distrust market advance due to massive liquidity injection. Will the central banks succeed in avoiding liquidity crunch? I think so even though at the expense of their currencies. So where should I put my money since almost every asset class will be influenced by liquidity injection, e.g. rising tide lift all boats? I will be interested in funds with highest volatility, e.g. emerging markets, Asia and commodities. Another question is should I deploy cash(around 45% of portfolio)? Since I do not know probability of continuation of current bull market, therefore I am comfortable with the current cash level, e.g. no deployment of cash. The only change I will make to the portfolio is to switch all units of Aberdeen Thailand Equity to Aberdeen Pacific Equity. The reason is after a healthy correction in Asia markets, there is no reason to take country-specific risks. Below is the portfolio for second half of 2007.

Name: globevestor
Profile:Global absolute return 2007
1) UOB United Gold & General Fund - around 30%
2) Lion Captial Glb Ind & Res Invt-A - around 15%
3) DBS Enhanced Income SGD - around 45%
4) Aberdeen Pacific Equity - around 10%

Portfolio for sgfunds.com fund portfolio contest - first half of 2007

2007-01-25T22:05:00.000-08:00

Details of the contest can be found here. Below is my portfolio for first half of 2007:

Name: globevestor
Profile:Global absolute return 2007
1) UOB United Gold & General Fund - 30k
2) Lion Captial Glb Ind & Res Invt-A - 15k
3) DBS Enhanced Income SGD - 45k
4) Aberdeen Thailand Equity - 10k

Strategies

#1 Foresee a correction in global stock markets of at least 20% in first half of 2007. Reason is most of stock markets are overbought using weekly charts. As an example, see weekly chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ and S&P 500 below.

Dow Jones Industrial Average vs S&P500 vs NASDAQ

Therefore cash is parked in money market fund, DBS Enhanced Income SGD. Then how about bond funds? If there is correction in global stock markets, will the bond funds rally because of fear of slower growth and desire for safety? In the short term, long term bond funds may have benefited from rotation. However since I do not know any long term bond fund in Singapore, I will pass this possibility. How about Singapore bond funds? Most of Singapore bond funds are in overbought zone using weekly charts. See weekly chart of DWS Lion Fund below.

DWS Lion Bond Fund

#2 Invest in least appreciated funds for the past six months with good long term prospect, e.g. commodities funds. See chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, S&P 500 and CRB Index below.

Dow Jones Industrial Average vs S&P500 vs NASDAQ vs CRB Index

Of all the commodities, I am most bullish on gold since it is least affected by slower growth. Therefore United Gold & General Fund is my top pick for this reason. However to mitigate risks of single fund, I also allocate a small portion of cash to Lion Capital Glb Ind & Res Invt-A, which is mainly an energy fund. If the global stock markets were to experience correction, would commodities funds behave more like stock funds or commodities? Based on weekly chart of United Gold & General Fund and S&P 500 below, commodities funds behave more like stock funds during correction.

UOB Gold vs S&P 500

However technical setup of commodities funds are better because they have already experienced correction. In addition, US Dollar is weak which is negative correlated to commodities. See chart of US Dollar Index vs CRB Index below.

US Dollar Index

US Dollar Index vs CRB Index

#3 To protect against strategy #1 when the correction is mild, e.g. less than 10%, I need to allocate a small amount of cash to an equity fund. However most of equity funds are overbought using weekly charts. I need an equity fund that has already corrected. For this reason, I pick Aberdeen Thailand Equity. Based on the weekly charts of SET Index below , the best case is it will move sideway. The worst case is it will rebound to upper boundary of down channel and move downwards again. In any case, SET is expected to rebound. This strategy protects the portfolio from underperformance if the bull markets refuse to give up.

SET Index

OK, I have a list of funds for first half of 2007. How do I allocate cash to each fund? I will use probability. I am bullish on first two strategies, therefore I allocate most of cash to these two strategies, e.g. 45% for each strategy. Since I am more bullish on gold than other commodities, United Gold & General Fund will get 30% of cash. After these allocations, only 10% of cash is available for last strategy.

P.S. If you would to consider this portfolio for your CPF investment, replace United Gold & General Fund with First State Global Resources.

Resources for technical analysis

New fund charts site

2006-07-20T19:46:00.000-07:00

myFundCharts.com is a new site created to make fund technical charts available to general public. Hopefully fund investors will find the charts useful in their investment process especially in the timing aspect.

Potential bullish chart pattern for First State Global Resources fund

2006-04-22T10:33:00.000-07:00

If the chart of First State Global Resources fund is forming a reserve head-and-shoulder pattern, the price target will be S$1.3569. See chart below:

Collect fund prices for portfolio tracking and charting

Transaction on 21/4/2006

2006-04-21T08:32:00.000-07:00

Bought 5000 shares of Sky China Petrol Services at S$0.585(closing price).

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Idea : Sky China Petrol Services

2006-04-20T06:58:00.000-07:00

Buy 5000 shares of Sky China Petrol Services on 21/4/06 if price range is S$0.565-S$0.585 on volume less than 15M(20MA for volume). This is an energy play. If you are interested in political risk, visit Jim Sinclair website.

Sky China Petrol Services

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Transaction on 18/4/06

2006-04-19T03:48:00.000-07:00

Buy 1429.74 units of Fidelity Japan fund at cost of S$5k with effective unit price of S$3.4971(2% sales charge).

Transaction on 17/4/06

2006-04-18T06:19:00.000-07:00

Buy 4161 units of First State Global Resources fund at cost of S$5k with effective unit price of S$1.2016(2% sales charge).

Beauty contest : Japan, Korea, Thailand (Part II)

2006-04-18T06:02:00.000-07:00

Fidelity Japan vs Fidelity Korea vs Aberdeen Thailand

TOPIX

You may ask why buy non-commodities funds when price of oil and gold is going up. According to conventional/traditional thinking, it is logical to avoid non-commodities funds now. So why buy Japan fund now? First, commodities funds are overbought now. Second, I do not tell the markets how to behave. Instead I take hints from markets. First State Global Resources fund was bought for Sample Aggressive Portfolio on 17/4/06 before price of oil and gold breaks out from US$70 and US$600 respectively. Third, having one commodities fund and one non-commodities fund is kind of market neutral strategy. Having one type of funds give the impression that I know where the markets are heading which is "foolish".

Collect fund prices for portfolio tracking and charting

Beauty contest : Japan, Korea, Thailand

2006-04-17T23:27:00.000-07:00

Based on technical analysis, Fidelity Japan has the best chart for price appreciation. Currently the fund is forming handle of the potential cup-and-handle pattern. Allocate S$5k to Fidelity Japan today. Charts will be posted later.

Idea : First State Global Resources Fund

2006-04-16T22:20:00.000-07:00

To take advantage of gold time-zone arbitraging opportunity, buy S$5k of First State Global Resources Fund if gold spot price can stay around US$604 at 2pm SGT, 17 April 2006.

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Site subscription form

2006-04-15T18:10:00.000-07:00

Idea : Thailand, Korea

2006-04-15T01:23:00.000-07:00

Based on the post related to Thailand and Korea, I am ready to put money to work if one of the following conditions is met.

Retracement of SET after the recent breakout is ended with volume lighter than average daily volume.

Retail investors of KOSPI are selling again after shopping spree on 14/4/06.

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Sample aggressive portfolio

2006-04-15T00:02:00.000-07:00

S$50k is allocated to this sample portfolio. S$50k is chosen because the amount is not too small or too huge.

Investment objective : absolute return

General investment style is a combination of technical analysis and fundamental/macro analysis. See Globevesting for details.

Since this is an imaginary portfolio, fees are decided arbitrarely : 2% and 1% for buying equity funds and non-equity funds respectively (no exit fees), S$30 for each stock transaction(buy or sell, regardless of transaction value).

For portfolio tracking, closing price/NAV is used.

Collect fund prices for portfolio tracking and charting